The K7RA Solar Update


06/09/2017

The big event this week was multiple sporadic-E linkups on 6 meters yesterday (June 8).

The average daily sunspot number rose this week from 15.6 to 19.3. This was largely due to the fact that there was one zero-sunspot day last week, and no days with zero sunspots this week.

The average daily A index, planetary and mid-latitude were both 5.6 this week. Last week they were 13.3 and 10.6.

Predicted solar flux is 72 on June 9-10, 75 on June 11-13, 72 on June 14-15, 78 on June 16-26, 80 on June 27 to July 1, 78 on July 2-8, 80 on July 9, and 78 on July 10-23.

Planetary A index is predicted at 5 on June 9-11, 8 on June 12-13, 5, 12, 25 and 10 on June 14-17, 8 on June 18-19, 5 on June 20 to July 10, then 10, 12, 25 and 10 on July 11-14, 8 on July 15-16, and 5 on July 17-23.

Field Day weekend, June 24-25, shows a changed prediction for June 23-25 with a solar flux at 78, and planetary A index of 5 on all three days. This is improved from last week’s forecast in ARLP022 which projected a higher geomagnetic (A index) forecast and lower solar flux.

Our usual Czech source for geomagnetic forecasts is away this week, so here is another Czech resource with predictions for only the next week:

“Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period June 9-June 15, 2017

Quiet: Jun 9-12, 14-15
Unsettled:   Jun 13-14
Active:      Jun 14-15
Minor storm: possible Jun 15
Major storm: 0
Severe storm: 0

Geomagnetic activity summary:

Except the last days, we expect at most quiet to unsettled conditions til the next week. From June 13-14 the unsettled conditions may be more frequent but the general activity forecast should remain at the quiet to unsettled level.

Because the last flare occurred at the central part of solar disk, we expect an active episode at the end of the forecast period. About June 15, active conditions can also reach minor storm level.

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)”

Bruce Smith, AC4G, of Taft, Tennessee wrote: “Just wanted to inform your readers that on 7 June, at approximately 2100z, I heard PA2M (Netherlands) calling CQ into my area EM65, southern Tennessee. I went down to 50.081 called CQ (CW) and began working many European stations. When the bands finally faded after about 2 hours, I ended up making QSOs with 18 European stations such as PA, G, GM, and GD (were the main areas worked).”

Jim Wilson, K5ND, of Grapevine, Texas wrote: “I’m sure you’re getting plenty of comments about the recent openings on 6 meters. I’ve observed daily openings into Europe, but with no luck from Texas. However, this afternoon I was able to work into Japan for the first time ever, running 100 watts with JT65 into a Moxon antenna at 25 feet.

“I wrote up my experience, along with screen shots, at https://www.k5nd.net/2017/06/six-meters-once-more-magic/.”

According to Rick Lindquist, WW1ME, K5ND is the organizer of the annual Boy Scout Jamboree on the Air. Check out the K5ND bio at QRZ.com, and of course his blog at www.k5nd.blog.

Dick Ferry, K2KA of Westford, Massachusetts wrote: “On June 7, I enjoyed the epic opening on 6 meters. I have never seen the band lit up like that before. I worked 32 NA stations (wasn’t hearing EU) and 2 new states (Idaho and Wyoming). All signals were strong. Mid-west was working JA too, so was EU. Wall to wall stations 2230Z to well beyond 2359Z.

“Today, June 8, the band has been open all morning again, but there does not seem to be as much activity. We’ll see how it goes.”

 

Lloyd Rasmussen, W3IUU, wrote: “SWPC.NOAA.GOV does some nice alerts, watches and warnings for ionospheric and flare events above the R1, S1 or G1 levels. I should have saved the report for May; it is in reverse chronological order for a month at a time. Anyway, it showed that the K index went to 5 just after 2200Z on the May 27, as I remember, to 6 after 2300Z, and to 7 at I think around 0430Z.

“Around 0300Z we had strong signals from the Washington, DC area to several points west on 20, and to the west coast and out to ZL and VK on 15. WWV was very loud on 20 MHz, with some flutter on their signal; but not really audible on 25 MHz. One Texas beacon was still heard on 10 meters; I probably missed a lot of 10-meter action before or after that time.

“Having heard some of this during severe disturbances in the late 1950s while living in Iowa, I think some of this is auroral E layer propagation, multi-hop in some cases. At least the E layer needs to be factored into the mix.”

George Hall, N2CG, of Saddle Brook, New Jersey wrote: “I’m located in Northern New Jersey, FN20wv, and I knew earlier in the day on June 7 that there was ongoing US East Coast and Midwest 6m openings to Europe by observing the spotting websites on my tablet at work. However, by the time I got home from work at 6 PM EDT (2200Z) the band shifted to single and double hop Es openings over a large part of the US and Canada.

“A few minutes after 2200Z I turned on my rig and I immediately started hearing the VE4VHF beacon in Winnipeg, MB EN19 on 50.036 MHz with a true 599+ signal report! Shortly after I began tuning around and began hearing several more beacons, all with RST 589 to 599+ signals as follows: W9JN/B 50.062 MHz EN54, N8PUM/B 50.068 MHz EN66, and K0KP/B 50.073 MHz EN36. So, based on the signal strength of these beacons, I knew I was in store for a good 6m band opening but had no idea how long this opening would last!

“During the course of the next 6-1/2+ hours I worked on CW or SSB mode stations in WA, OR, MT, ID, WI, MN, IL, KS, MO, TN, KY, GA and AL. I most likely would have easily worked more stations but I had to go QRT for over 2 hours and when I got back on the air at 0035Z (08 June) I thought perhaps the “wireworks” would be over … but that was NOT the case. I was pleasantly surprised to hear the band was still wide open to the Midwest as well as the Pacific Northwest. Around 0130Z I started hearing the N0LL beacon on 50.078 MHz in EM09 and remained coming in to my QTH for over 2 hours with signal strength ranging from RST 559 to 579.

“I don’t work the JT digital modes but I know those ops were also very busy because I monitored their frequencies (50.276 to 50.280 MHz) several times during the opening and I could hear their warbling signal tones indicating much JT digital mode activity.

“The 2017 Es Season started off very slow for me and I missed the big Es opening to Europe and elsewhere when I was attending the Hamvention in Xenia, Ohio a few weekends ago. This June 7 Es opening sure made up for my slow start of this year’s Es Season for me.”

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for June 1 through 7, 2017 were 18, 19, 22, 23, 22, 18, and 13, with a mean of 19.3. 10.7 cm flux was 75.7, 78.2, 77.9, 77.7, 79.4, 75.4, and 75.5 with a mean of 77.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 5, 9, 3, 5, 5, and 5, with a mean of 5.6. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 6, 6, 9, 3, 5, 5, and 5, with a mean of 5.6.

 

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